Movies: My 2008 Oscar nomination picks

*Sigh.* Another year of making three-fourths of my Oscar picks within a day of the nominations then being unable to wrap up and post them till a month later and on the weekend of the awards ceremony -- after seeing no more than 10% of the nominees.

My system for picking Oscar winners relies purely on intuition, since there is no way I can see even half of all Oscar nominees in a given year much less in one month. Yep, I go solely on buzz and gut instinct (reading just the Houston Chronicle and the New York Times, listening to public radio, and picking up on chatter at Netflix).

For two of the past three years, I've picked 15 out of 24 nominations accurately. (A sweep by Departed threw me off by 5 picks the other year.) The technical and short films categories are always a bear-in-the-fog kind of thing.

In two of the past three years, I have seen just 7 movies from the field but last year the count sank to 3. (Ideally, it would be a lot more.) This past year the count is 4 movies and 1 short.

Followed by my Oscar picks, here is a list of the 50 short and feature films nominated for the 2008 Oscar season, with the 4 movies and 1 short in bold that I have managed to see (as of January 22 and unchanged as of today):

Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Australia
Bolt
Changeling
Defiance
Departures
Doubt
Encounters at the End of the World
Frost/Nixon
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
In Bruges
Iron Man
Kung Fu Panda
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Man on Wire
Manon on the Asphalt
Milk
New Boy
Oktapodi
Presto
Rachel Getting Married
Revanche
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Smile Pinki
Spielzeugland (Toyland)
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
The Class
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
The Final Inch
The Garden
The Pig
The Reader
The Visitor
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306
The Wrestler
This Way Up
Tropic Thunder
Trouble the Water
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
WALL-E
Waltz with Bashir
Wanted

Here are my 2008 Oscar picks (made January 22, except for the technical and short categories) in bold italic, with alternate picks in italic:

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins in The Visitor
Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn in Milk
Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie in Changeling
Melissa Leo in Frozen River
Meryl Streep in Doubt
Kate Winslet in The Reader

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin in Milk
Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in Doubt
Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis in Doubt
Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Best Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Best Cinematography
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Costume Design
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Best Director
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher
Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
Milk, Gus Van Sant
The Reader, Stephen Daldry
Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle

Best Documentary Feature
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

Best Documentary Short
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306

Best Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Foreign Language Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revanche
Waltz with Bashir

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Best Original Song
Down to Earth from WALL-E
Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire
O Saya from Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Short
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

Best Live Action Short
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

Best Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
WALL-E