Movies: My Oscar predictions

In college, I developed a theory for predicting who will win an election: All things being equal, it tends to be whoever, at the outset, has the last name that is most recognizable to the general populace. Under my theory, candidates in any election at any level will tend to be elected if their last names are Anderson, Bell, Bush, Campbell, Carlson, Clooney, Dempsey, Edison, Gonzalez, Grant, Kennedy, McDonald, Patton, Richards, Sanchez, Schwarzenegger, and Smith as opposed to Alexander, Bartlet, Christiansen, Edwards, Fitzgerald, Graham, Huffington, Jimenez, Kerry, Klein, Lamb, MacDougal, Seymour, and Szyczkiewicz. It's the gut-level familiarity with the surname, you see.

This week, I tested a new theory of election prediction with American Idol, which I have not watched all season. I caught part of Thursday night's elimination trials though, and I correctly predicted for every female contestant whether she would stay or go, based on her appearance alone. (I was abjectly wrong with every male contestant, however.) In the ten seconds I had from first seeing each contestant to the announcement of her fate, I made a snap judgment based on the togetherness of her outfit or the tattiness of her 'do, spoke it aloud, and was right every time; apparently the scruffiness or haircut-from-Mars rule doesn't work with males though.

This year among the Oscar nominees, I have so far seen only Crash, The Chronicles of Narnia, King Kong, March of the Penguins, Revenge of the Sith, Walk the Line, and War of the Worlds. Even so, I feel I can intuit the gestalt of a movie and its relative appeal (and, to a lesser extent, its buzz). To test my theory and shoot completely from the hip with virtually no knowledge of any of the remaining field of films, I am not afraid to make my predictions for the Oscar winners; it will be fun to see how my gut sense compares with reality. Herewith I flag my Oscar picks in salmon; during or after the Oscar ceremonies Sunday night, I'll flag the actual winners (should they differ) in blue.

BEST PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain, Diana Ossana and James Schamus, producers
Capote, Caroline Baron, William Vince and Michael Ohoven, producers
Crash, Paul Haggis and Cathy Schulman, producers
Good Night, and Good Luck, Grant Heslov, producer
Munich, Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg and Barry Mendel, producers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt, A History of Violence

BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Terrence Howard, Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller, Capote
Paul Haggis, Crash
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Steven Spielberg, Munich

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, Crash
George Clooney and Grant Heslov, Good Night, and Good Luck
Woody Allen, Match Point
Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
Steven Gaghan, Syriana

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, Brokeback Mountain
Dan Futterman, Capote
Jeffrey Caine, The Constant Gardener
Josh Olson, A History of Violence
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, Munich

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Don't Tell (Italy)
Joyeux Noël (France)
Paradise Now (Palestine)
Sophie Scholl - The Final Days (Germany)
Tsotsi (South Africa)

BEST ANIMATED FILM
Howl's Moving Castle, Hayao Miyazake
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride, Tim Burton and Mike Johnson
Wallace & Grommit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Nick Park and Steve Box

BEST ART DIRECTION
Good Night, and Good Luck, Art Direction: Jim Bissell; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, Art Direction: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
King Kong, Art Direction: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Dan Hennah and Simon Bright
Memoirs of a Geisha, Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau
Pride & Prejudice, Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Batman Begins, Wally Pfister
Brokeback Mountain, Rodrigo Prieto
Good Night, and Good Luck, Robert Elswit
Memoirs of a Geisha, Dion Beebe
The New World, Emmanuel Lubezki

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Gabriella Pescucci
Memoirs of a Geisha, Colleen Atwood
Mrs. Henderson Presents, Sandy Powell
Pride & Prejudice, Jacqueline Durran
Walk the Line, Arianne Phillips

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Darwin's Nightmare, Hubert Sauper
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, Alex Gibney and Jason Kliot
March of the Penguins, Luc Jacquet and Yves Darondeau
Murderball, Henry-Alex Rubin and Dana Adam Shapiro
Street Fight, Marshall Curry

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club, Dan Krauss
God Sleeps in Rwanda, Kimberlee Acquaro and Stacy Sherman
The Mushroom Club, Steven Okazaki
A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin, Corinne Marrinan and Eric Simonson

BEST FILM EDITING
Cinderella Man, Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
The Constant Gardener, Claire Simpson
Crash, Hughes Winborne
Munich, Michael Kahn
Walk the Line, Michael McCusker

BEST MAKEUP
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Howard Berger and Tami Lane
Cinderella Man, David Leroy Anderson and Lance Anderson
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith, Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Brokeback Mountain, Gustavo Santaolalla
The Constant Gardener, Alberto Iglesias
Memoirs of a Geisha, John Williams
Munich, John Williams
Pride & Prejudice, Dario Marianelli

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"In the Deep" from Crash, Music by Kathleen "Bird" York and Michael Becker; Lyrics by Kathleen "Bird" York
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow, Music and Lyrics by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard
"Travelin' Thru" from Transamerica, Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Badgered, Sharon Colman
The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation, John Canemaker and Peggy Stern
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello, Anthony Lucas
9, Shane Acker
One Man Band, Andrew Jimenez and Mark Andrews

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Ausreisser (The Runaway), Ulrike Grote
Cashback, Sean Ellis and Lene Bausager
The Last Farm, Rúnar Rúnarsson and Thor S. Sigurjónsson
Our Time Is Up, Rob Pearlstein and Pia Clemente
Six Shooter, Martin McDonagh

BEST SOUND EDITING
King Kong, Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn
Memoirs of a Geisha, Wylie Stateman
War of the Worlds, Richard King

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson
King Kong, Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek
Memoirs of a Geisha, Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett
Walk the Line, Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland
War of the Worlds, Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar
King Kong, Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor
War of the Worlds, Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra and Daniel Sudick