Movies: My 2008 Oscar picks are 13 out of 24

In the past four years I have yet to see more than 7 films (features and shorts) from the field of nominees before the Oscar awards ceremony. Nevertheless in two previous years, including last year when I saw only 3 nominees, I've picked 15 out of 24 Oscar awards accurately. (A sweep by Departed threw me off by 5 picks in the remaining year for a count of 10 out of 24.) This year, my Oscar picks turned out to be accurate in 13 out of 24 award categories.

This year, I took the experimental step of making alternate picks, but only an additional 7 of my second guesses were accurate. I completely missed on Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress as well as Best Foreign Language and Best Documentary Short.

My system for picking Oscar winners relies purely on intuition (and luck, which goes both ways, in the short film and original song categories). I go on buzz filtered by gut instinct with no time to do more than the usual: read the Houston Chronicle and maybe the New York Times, listen to public radio, and pick up on chatter at Netflix. (Last year I had a 6-month subscription to EW for the low price of $2, but I tossed out half of the issues unskimmed.)

Here are my 2008 Oscar picks (made January 22, except for technical and short categories made February 21) in bold italic (and alternate picks in italic), with Oscar winners underlined:

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins in The Visitor
Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn in Milk
Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie in Changeling
Melissa Leo in Frozen River
Meryl Streep in Doubt
Kate Winslet in The Reader

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin in Milk
Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in Doubt
Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis in Doubt
Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler

Best Animated Feature
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

Best Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

Best Cinematography
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Costume Design
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Best Director
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher
Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
Milk, Gus Van Sant
The Reader, Stephen Daldry
Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle

Best Documentary Feature
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

Best Documentary Short
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306

Best Film Editing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Foreign Language Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex
The Class
Departures
Revanche
Waltz with Bashir

Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Best Original Score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

Best Original Song
Down to Earth from WALL-E
Jai Ho from Slumdog Millionaire
O Saya from Slumdog Millionaire

Best Animated Short
La Maison en Petits Cubes
Lavatory - Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

Best Live Action Short
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

Best Sound Mixing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

Best Visual Effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Screenplay
Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
WALL-E