My Oscar picks for 2013

Last year, I saw a record 9 out of all nominated feature-length movies (and none of the shorts). This year has been more intense than usual and I have seen a record low of 3 among all nominees (Gravity, Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, and Star Trek Into Darkness). Clearly, my picks are based on gut feel (and luck) not on actual viewing. My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009, 11 in 2010, 15 in 2011, and 9 (or 8.5, discounting for the tie in Sound Editing) in 2012. (Note: The Oscars tag the awards in the year in which the awards are given, while I date them by the year in which the films were released. Underlining denotes my pick of deserving nominee; boldface will later denote the actual winner.)

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave.

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Grandmaster, Philippe Le Sourd

Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki

Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel

Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael

Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson

The Grandmaster, William Chang Suk Ping

The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin

The Invisible Woman, Michael O'Connor

12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

20 Feet from Stardom

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

CaveDigger

Facing Fear

Karama Has No Walls

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

BEST FILM EDITING

American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten

Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse

Dallas Buyers Club, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger

12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium

The Great Beauty, Italy

The Hunt, Denmark

The Missing Picture, Cambodia

Omar, Palestine

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Stephen Prouty

The Lone Ranger, Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief, John Williams

Gravity, Steven Price

Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett

Philomena, Alexandre Desplat

Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Happy from Despicable Me 2

Let It Go from Frozen

The Moon Song from Her

Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle, Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler

Gravity, Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard

The Great Gatsby, Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn

Her, Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena

12 Years a Slave, Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Feral

Get a Horse!

Mr. Hublot

Possessions

Room on the Broom

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)

Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)

Helium

Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

The Voorman Problem

BEST SOUND EDITING

All Is Lost, Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns

Captain Phillips, Oliver Tarney

Gravity, Glenn Freemantle

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Brent Burge

Lone Survivor, Wylie Stateman

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro

Gravity, Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson

Inside Llewyn Davis, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Lone Survivor, Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds

Iron Man 3, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick

The Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier

Star Trek Into Darkness, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight, written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke

Captain Phillips, screenplay by Billy Ray

Philomena, screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

12 Years a Slave, screenplay by John Ridley

The Wolf of Wall Street, screenplay by Terence Winter

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle, written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

Blue Jasmine, written by Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club, written by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

Her, written by Spike Jonze

Nebraska, written by Bob Nelson