Movies: My 2010 Oscar picks (11 of 24)

Each year, my Oscar picks are more from intuition -- an editorial sense of quantitative buzz -- than actually seeing more than a handful of the nominees (or half again more this year). The shorts esp. are always total blind stabs -- though this year I got to see two-thirds of them after my picks but before the Awards. While the animated and live action shorts that won Oscars were my actual favorites, I didn't change my picks for shorts on principle because they were powerful films in their own way. Nevertheless, next year I expect to see more nominees and adjust certain picks as necessary right up to the ceremony.

To recap, I've seen 9 of the feature nominees this year (Alice in Wonderland, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, How to Train Your Dragon, Inception, Inside Job, The King's Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, Tron: Legacy) and 10 of the shorts Animation and Live Action). My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009 -- and 11 in 2010.

(Underline is my pick though italic is a secondary pick for the likely winner if different. Bold is the actual winner.)

1. Best Picture: "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "Inception," "The Kids Are All Right," "The King's Speech," "127 Hours," "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," "True Grit," "Winter's Bone."

2. Actor: Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"; Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"; Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"; Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"; James Franco, "127 Hours."

3. Actress: Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"; Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"; Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"; Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"; Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine."

4. Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"; John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"; Jeremy Renner, "The Town"; Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"; Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech."

5. Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, "The Fighter"; Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"; Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"; Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"; Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom."

6. Directing: Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"; David O. Russell, "The Fighter"; Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"; David Fincher, "The Social Network"; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "True Grit."

7. Foreign Language Film: "Biutiful," Mexico; "Dogtooth," Greece; "In a Better World," Denmark; "Incendies," Canada; "Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)," Algeria.

8. Adapted Screenplay: Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, "127 Hours"; Aaron Sorkin, "The Social Network"; Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich, "Toy Story 3"; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"; Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, "Winter's Bone."

9. Original Screenplay: Mike Leigh, "Another Year"; Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson and Keith Dorrington, "The Fighter"; Christopher Nolan, "Inception"; Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, "The Kids Are All Right"; David Seidler, "The King's Speech."

10. Animated Feature Film: "How to Train Your Dragon," "The Illusionist," "Toy Story 3."

11. Art Direction: "Alice in Wonderland," "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1," "Inception," "The King's Speech," "True Grit."

12. Cinematography: "Black Swan," "Inception," "The King's Speech," "The Social Network," "True Grit."

13. Sound Mixing: "Inception," "The King's Speech," "Salt," "The Social Network," "True Grit."

14. Sound Editing: "Inception," "Toy Story 3," "Tron: Legacy," "True Grit," "Unstoppable."

15. Original Score: "How to Train Your Dragon," John Powell; "Inception," Hans Zimmer; "The King's Speech," Alexandre Desplat; "127 Hours," A.R. Rahman; "The Social Network," Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

16. Original Song: "Coming Home" from "Country Strong," Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey; "I See the Light" from "Tangled," Alan Menken and Glenn Slater; "If I Rise" from "127 Hours," A.R. Rahman, Dido and Rollo Armstrong; "We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3," Randy Newman.

17. Costume: "Alice in Wonderland," "I Am Love," "The King's Speech," "The Tempest," "True Grit."

18. Documentary Feature: "Exit through the Gift Shop," "Gasland," "Inside Job," "Restrepo," "Waste Land."

19. Documentary (short): "Killing in the Name," "Poster Girl," "Strangers No More," "Sun Come Up," "The Warriors of Qiugang."

20. Film Editing: "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "The King's Speech," "127 Hours," "The Social Network."

21. Makeup: "Barney's Version," "The Way Back," "The Wolfman."

22. Animated Short Film: "Day and Night," "The Gruffalo," "Let's Pollute," "The Lost Thing," "Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)."

23. Live Action Short Film: "The Confession," "The Crush," "God of Love," "Na Wewe," "Wish 143."

24. Visual Effects: "Alice in Wonderland," "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1," "Hereafter," "Inception," "Iron Man 2."