Movies: My 2006 Oscar picks

(I wrote this on January 23 but wanted to try to view the animated shorts, which didn't happen until February 24.)

Last March when I made my 2005 Oscar winner predictions, I had seen only 7 films from the crush -- The Chronicles of Narnia, Crash, King Kong, March of the Penguins, Revenge of the Sith, Walk the Line, and War of the Worlds -- yet I correctly selected 15 of the 24 categories. Two films I had most wanted to win -- Crash and March of the Penguins -- did win, though I had surmised that Brokeback Mountain and Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room would capture Best Picture and Best Documentary. The remaining 7 categories I missed were minor ones: Best Animated Feature, Best Live Short Film, Best Short Documentary, Best Sound Mixing, Best Song, Best Foreign Language, Best Cinematography.

This year to date, I have only seen 3 films from the field: Happy Feet, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, and The Queen. Nevertheless, because my approach is to shoot completely from the hip, with no prior knowledge of the nominees necessary beyond buzz and gut instinct, I am once more unafraid to make my Oscar winner predictions. (It's fun to see how intuition compares with reality after the fact.) So here, for the second year, I post and flag my Oscar picks in salmon; during or after the Oscar ceremonies on Feb. 25, I'll post a link back to this entry and flag the actual winners (should they differ) in blue. (Sorry, I'm not listing artists, authors, and technicians by name this year, only actors and directors.)

BEST PICTURE
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
(Scorsese might sweep Best Picture and Best Director but the Academy may split the vote like last year and Eastwood is a favorite. I actually feel like Babel will win but I want to stand by the earnest historical drama which is a strong theme this year.)

DIRECTING
Alejandro González Iñárritu -- Babel
Martin Scorsese -- The Departed
Clint Eastwood -- Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears -- The Queen
Paul Greengrass -- United 93
(Note: Scorsese has been often nominated and the Academy may want to make sure he wins an Oscar for Best Director before it's too late.)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Leonardo DiCaprio -- Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling -- Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole -- Venus
Will Smith -- The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker -- The Last King of Scotland
(Note: Like Mirren for Best Actress, Whitaker has been the clear choice to win Best Actor. O'Toole has been often nominated and while the Academy may want to make sure he wins one Oscar for Best Actor before it's too late, he did win an Honorary Oscar last year so they'll probably say "OK then" and stick with Whitaker.)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Penélope Cruz -- Volver
Judi Dench -- Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren -- The Queen
Meryl Streep -- The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet -- Little Children
(Note: Dench is excellent but gritty and won an Oscar for a lesser role than Mirren's so the Academy should pick Mirren as the clear favorite.)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Alan Arkin -- Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley -- Little Children
Djimon Hounsou -- Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy -- Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg -- The Departed
(I'm uncertain whether Dreamgirls will win across the board so I feel Arkin will get a nod.)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Adriana Barraza -- Babel
Cate Blanchett -- Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin -- Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson -- Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi -- Babel

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
After the Wedding
Days of Glory (Indigenes)
The Lives of Others
Pan's Labyrinth
Water

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

ART DIRECTION
Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

COSTUME DESIGN
Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Deliver Us From Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country, My Country

FILM EDITING
Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93

MAKEUP
Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth

ORIGINAL SCORE
Babel
The Good German
Notes on a Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

ORIGINAL SONG
“I Need to Wake Up” - An Inconvenient Truth
“Listen” - Dreamgirls
“Love You I Do” - Dreamgirls
“Our Town” - Cars
“Patience” - Dreamgirls

SOUND MIXING
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

SOUND EDITING
Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters From Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

VISUAL EFFECTS
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
The Blood of Yingzhou District
Recycled Life
Rehearsing a Dream
Two Hands

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Danish Poet
Lifted
The Little Matchgirl
Maestro
No Time for Nuts

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)
Éramos Pocos (One Too Many)
Helmer & Son
The Saviour
West Bank Story