My Oscar picks for 2017

In a continuing trend that I hope ends this year, I have seen the fewest number ever (2) of the entire list of Oscar nominees (Victoria & Abdul and Darkest Hour). I have just taken 15 minutes to make my Oscar picks, which will be based on less buzz and intuition than any prior year, because I rarely have had time to catch any news and arts reporting. As usual in prior years (save the last two), I will repost this list after the awards ceremony with my picks in bold italic (the font appears to have been tweaked so that now boldface is difficult to discern from bookface) and the winners underlined. It's a tradition!

BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

BEST DIRECTOR
Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan, Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul

SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us

ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
The Insult, Lebanon
Loveless, Russia
On Body and Soul, Hungary
The Square, Sweden

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Edith and Eddie
Heaven Is A Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Man in Aleppo
Strong Island

ORIGINAL SONG
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Mystery of Love,” Call Me By Your Name
“Remember Me,” Coco
“Stand Up For Something,” Marshall
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

My Oscar picks for 2016 (17* of 24)

I now realize that, in the greater rush of making my picks this year (10 minutes before the show began), I marked those movies that I thought should win with a checkmark, and those that I thought would win with a slight underline. This is a departure from my annual tradition, which is to predict which movies will actually win: second guesses do not count. So while I picked 8 out of 24 categories correctly, thinking of the nominees I thought should win, I also picked another 9 (for a total of 17 out of 24) categories correctly, thinking of the nominees I thought would win. In any case, I am putting an asterisk alongside the number 17, because I diverged slightly from the usual selection methodology, and conflating the two numbers is not strictly fair. (If you think about it, the picks I thought should win, that I picked correctly, actually make the picks I thought would win, incorrect!)

In any event, I picked La La Land for Best Picture, but thought Moonlight might get picked instead. Huh!

My Oscar picks for 2016

Email: Tech S[up]port

Missive to tech support [company name replaced with "you"]:

Nine days since my problem report, which I have repeated to you in four different ways, hoping for comprehension, yet still with no helpful response from [you].

So today I am spending the second hour wrestling with this, no help from [you]. I check the Firefox browser's Tools menu, Add-ons submenu, where I find [software] is in need of an update (that it never mentioned to me, despite nearly every other plug-in I have ever used in 20 years performs, or at least asks to perform, auto-updates). I click Update. Oh, and Sync. (Though it said it was synced, the iOS apps were still out of sync.)

Next I found the Intuit password that I had entered into the desktop version (remember how this whole thing started?) now appears in my [...] apps on my iPhone and iPad. Better yet, a Pokemon password I had just entered in my iPhone now appears on my iPad and iMac. The Web app still did not show these changes. Within 5 minutes, after logging back in, it did, however.

So if someone tells you their browser plug-in has stopped working after an OS [...] update, may I suggest you ask them to check the Add-ins menu and verify the [...] plug-in is up-to-date? It's a fairly obvious solution, now that I look back at it. I was just so busy trying to do my own job. Not [yours].

My Oscar picks for 2015 (11 of 24)

I correctly picked 11 out of 24 Oscar nominees across all categories last night, after averaging 12 correct nominees per year over the past 11 years. Not bad, considering this year I had only seen a record low of 3 nominees among all contenders.

My Oscar picks for 2015

Next year: Resolve to find more than 20 minutes in transit at a Starbucks to make my Oscar picks (just before I leave for the Oscars party). Resolve to bring a laptop or iPad so I can see the trailers that Oscars.com now presents but (surprise) does not show on the iPhone. Resolve to bring earbuds so I could actually hear said trailers over the familial hubbub of a jammed java joint. 

This has been a tighter year than ever so that I have only seen a record low of 3 films among the field of Oscar nominees (Bridge of Spies on the silver screen, Inside Out and recently The Martian on DVD). Still, I grasp at straws and guess -- and put it out there. Let's see how it goes. 

New format since Forbes and Oscars chose to Balkanize their nominee lists: I'm checking off a ballot from oscars.com and snapping photos. Post-show actual winners will be denoted by circles or underlines. Good luck with your picks!

My Oscar picks for 2014 (11 of 24)

My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009, 11 in 2010, 15 in 2011, 9 (or 8.5, discounting for the tie in Sound Editing) in 2012, and 13 in 2013. This year (and within 5 minutes of seeing the list), I picked 11 out of 24, missing 4 of the 6 major categories but pegging 2 of the 3 shorts categories, which is crazy since I saw only two feature nominees (Boyhood, Hobbit 3) and no shorts this season. (Note: The Oscars tag the awards in the year in which the awards are given, while I date them by the year in which the films were released. Underlining denotes my pick of deserving nominee and italic denotes a more likely winner; boldface denotes the actual winner.)


BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

BEST ACTOR
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejando G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morton Tyldum, The Imitation Game

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood 
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Leviathan, Russia
Tangerines, Estonia
Wild Tales, Argentina
Ida, Poland
Timbuktu, Mauritania

BEST ANIMATED FEATURED FILM
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Robert Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski, Ida
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Roger Deakins, Unbroken

BEST FILM EDITING
Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach, American Sniper
Sandra Adair, Boyhood
Barney Pilling, The Grand Budapest Hotel
William Goldenberg, The Imitation Game
Tom Cross, Whiplash

BEST SOUND EDITING
Richard King, Interstellar
Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro, Unbroken
Brent Burge and Jason Canovas, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, American Sniper
Martin Hernandez and Aaron Glascock, Birdman

BEST SOUND MIXING
Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten, Interstellar
Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley, Whiplash
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano and Thomas Varga, Birdman
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin, American Sniper
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano and David Lee, Unbroken

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dennis Gassner (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration), Into the Woods
Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration), The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nathan Crowley (Production Design) and Gary Fettis (Set Decoration),Interstellar
Maria Djurkovic (Production Design) and Tatiana Macdonald (Set Decoration), The Imitation Game
Suzie Davies (Production Design) and Charlotte Watts (Set Decoration), Mr. Turner

BEST ORIGINAL SCOREHans Zimmer, Interstellar
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything
Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gary Yershon, Mr Turner

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Glory by Common and John Legend, Selma
Lost Stars by Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley and NickSouthwood, Begin Again
Everything Is Awesome by Shawn Patterson, The LEGO Movie
I'm Not Gonna Miss You, by Glen Campbell, Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me
Grateful, Beyond the lights

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods
Anna B. Sheppard, Maleficent
Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jacqueline Durran, Mr. Turner
Mark Bridges, Inherent Vice

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher, Interstellar
Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould, Guardians of the Galaxy
Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick, Captain America: Winter Soldier
Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer, X-Men: Days of Future Past

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Our Curse
White Earth
The Reaper

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Citizenfour
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga
The Salt of the Earth
Finding Vivian Maier

BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
Boogaloo and Graham
Aya
Butterlamp
Parvenah
The Phone Call

BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
Feast
The Bigger Picture
A Single Life
The Dam Keeper
Me and My Moulton

My Oscar picks for 2014

Last year, I saw a record low of 3 out of all nominated feature-length movies (and none of the shorts). This year has been more intense than ever and I have seen only 2 among all nominees (Boyhood and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies). Clearly, my picks are based on gut feel (and made in 5 minutes then posted less than an hour before the awards ceremony), not on actual viewing. My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009, 11 in 2010, 15 in 2011, 9 (or 8.5, discounting for the tie in Sound Editing) in 2012, and 13 in 2013. (Note: The Oscars tag the awards in the year in which the awards are given, while I date them by the year in which the films were released. Underlining denotes my pick of deserving nominee; boldface will later denote the actual winner.)


BEST PICTURE
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash

BEST ACTOR
Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Laura Dern, Wild
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejando G. Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morton Tyldum, The Imitation Game

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood 
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
Jason Hall, American Sniper
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Leviathan, Russia
Tangerines, Estonia
Wild Tales, Argentina
Ida, Poland
Timbuktu, Mauritania

BEST ANIMATED FEATURED FILM
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Robert Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski, Ida
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Roger Deakins, Unbroken

BEST FILM EDITING
Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach, American Sniper
Sandra Adair, Boyhood
Barney Pilling, The Grand Budapest Hotel
William Goldenberg, The Imitation Game
Tom Cross, Whiplash

BEST SOUND EDITING
Richard King, Interstellar
Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro, Unbroken
Brent Burge and Jason Canovas, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, American Sniper
Martin Hernandez and Aaron Glascock, Birdman

BEST SOUND MIXING
Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten, Interstellar
Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley, Whiplash
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano and Thomas Varga, Birdman
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin, American Sniper
Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano and David Lee, Unbroken

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dennis Gassner (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration), Into the Woods
Adam Stockhausen (Production Design) and Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration), The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nathan Crowley (Production Design) and Gary Fettis (Set Decoration),Interstellar
Maria Djurkovic (Production Design) and Tatiana Macdonald (Set Decoration), The Imitation Game
Suzie Davies (Production Design) and Charlotte Watts (Set Decoration), Mr. Turner

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mark Bridges, Inherent Vice
Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods
Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive, Maleficient
Jacqueline Durran, Mr. Turner

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Hans Zimmer, Interstellar
Alexandre Desplat, The Imitation Game
Johann Johannsson, The Theory of Everything
Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gary Yershon, Mr Turner

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Glory by Common and John Legend, Selma
Lost Stars by Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley and NickSouthwood, Begin Again
Everything Is Awesome by Shawn Patterson, The LEGO Movie
I'm Not Gonna Miss You, by Glen Campbell, Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me
Grateful, Beyond the lights

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods
Anna B. Sheppard, Maleficent
Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Jacqueline Durran, Mr. Turner
Mark Bridges, Inherent Vice

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher, Interstellar
Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul Corbould, Guardians of the Galaxy
Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick, Captain America: Winter Soldier
Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron Waldbauer, X-Men: Days of Future Past

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Joanna
Our Curse
White Earth
The Reaper

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Citizenfour
Last Days in Vietnam
Virunga
The Salt of the Earth
Finding Vivian Maier

BEST SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
Boogaloo and Graham
Aya
Butterlamp
Parvenah
The Phone Call

BEST SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
Feast
The Bigger Picture
A Single Life
The Dam Keeper
Me and My Moulton

My Oscar picks for 2013 (13 of 24)

My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009, 11 in 2010, 15 in 2011, and 9 (or 8.5, given the tie in Sound Editing) in 2012. This year, after seeing a record low (just 3) of all the films nominated, my success rate was 13 out of 24. (Note: The Oscars tag the awards in the year in which the awards are given, while I date them by the year in which the films were released.)

(Underlining denotes my posted pick of deserving nominee; boldface denotes the actual winner. As in one other year, I made and posted my picks in ten minutes; however, during the red carpet ceremonies, I recalled the picks I made mentally when the nominees were announced and changed my vote on paper before the awards. In those cases, italics denote my "final answer.")

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave.

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Grandmaster, Philippe Le Sourd

Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki

Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel

Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael

Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson

The Grandmaster, William Chang Suk Ping

The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin

The Invisible Woman, Michael O'Connor

12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

20 Feet from Stardom

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

CaveDigger

Facing Fear

Karama Has No Walls

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

BEST FILM EDITING

American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten

Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse

Dallas Buyers Club, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger

12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium

The Great Beauty, Italy

The Hunt, Denmark

The Missing Picture, Cambodia

Omar, Palestine

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Stephen Prouty

The Lone Ranger, Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief, John Williams

Gravity, Steven Price

Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett

Philomena, Alexandre Desplat

Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Happy from Despicable Me 2

Let It Go from Frozen

The Moon Song from Her

Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle, Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler

Gravity, Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard

The Great Gatsby, Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn

Her, Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena

12 Years a Slave, Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Feral

Get a Horse!

Mr. Hublot

Possessions

Room on the Broom

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)

Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)

Helium

Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

The Voorman Problem

BEST SOUND EDITING

All Is Lost, Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns

Captain Phillips, Oliver Tarney

Gravity, Glenn Freemantle

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Brent Burge

Lone Survivor, Wylie Stateman

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro

Gravity, Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson

Inside Llewyn Davis, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Lone Survivor, Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds

Iron Man 3, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick

The Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier

Star Trek Into Darkness, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight, written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke

Captain Phillips, screenplay by Billy Ray

Philomena, screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

12 Years a Slave, screenplay by John Ridley

The Wolf of Wall Street, screenplay by Terence Winter

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle, written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

Blue Jasmine, written by Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club, written by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

Her, written by Spike Jonze

Nebraska, written by Bob Nelson

My Oscar picks for 2013

Last year, I saw a record 9 out of all nominated feature-length movies (and none of the shorts). This year has been more intense than usual and I have seen a record low of 3 among all nominees (Gravity, Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, and Star Trek Into Darkness). Clearly, my picks are based on gut feel (and luck) not on actual viewing. My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009, 11 in 2010, 15 in 2011, and 9 (or 8.5, discounting for the tie in Sound Editing) in 2012. (Note: The Oscars tag the awards in the year in which the awards are given, while I date them by the year in which the films were released. Underlining denotes my pick of deserving nominee; boldface will later denote the actual winner.)

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave.

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Frozen

The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Grandmaster, Philippe Le Sourd

Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki

Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel

Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael

Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson

The Grandmaster, William Chang Suk Ping

The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin

The Invisible Woman, Michael O'Connor

12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

The Square

20 Feet from Stardom

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

CaveDigger

Facing Fear

Karama Has No Walls

The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life

Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

BEST FILM EDITING

American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten

Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse

Dallas Buyers Club, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa

Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger

12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium

The Great Beauty, Italy

The Hunt, Denmark

The Missing Picture, Cambodia

Omar, Palestine

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Stephen Prouty

The Lone Ranger, Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Book Thief, John Williams

Gravity, Steven Price

Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett

Philomena, Alexandre Desplat

Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Happy from Despicable Me 2

Let It Go from Frozen

The Moon Song from Her

Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

American Hustle, Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler

Gravity, Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard

The Great Gatsby, Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn

Her, Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena

12 Years a Slave, Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Feral

Get a Horse!

Mr. Hublot

Possessions

Room on the Broom

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM

Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)

Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)

Helium

Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)

The Voorman Problem

BEST SOUND EDITING

All Is Lost, Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns

Captain Phillips, Oliver Tarney

Gravity, Glenn Freemantle

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Brent Burge

Lone Survivor, Wylie Stateman

BEST SOUND MIXING

Captain Phillips, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro

Gravity, Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson

Inside Llewyn Davis, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland

Lone Survivor, Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds

Iron Man 3, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick

The Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier

Star Trek Into Darkness, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Before Midnight, written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke

Captain Phillips, screenplay by Billy Ray

Philomena, screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

12 Years a Slave, screenplay by John Ridley

The Wolf of Wall Street, screenplay by Terence Winter

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

American Hustle, written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell

Blue Jasmine, written by Woody Allen

Dallas Buyers Club, written by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack

Her, written by Spike Jonze

Nebraska, written by Bob Nelson