Monday, March 03, 2014

My Oscar picks for 2013 (13 of 24)


My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009, 11 in 2010, 15 in 2011, and 9 (or 8.5, given the tie in Sound Editing) in 2012. This year, after seeing a record low (just 3) of all the films nominated, my success rate was 13 out of 24. (Note: The Oscars tag the awards in the year in which the awards are given, while I date them by the year in which the films were released.)

(Underlining denotes my posted pick of deserving nominee; boldface denotes the actual winner. As in one other year, I made and posted my picks in ten minutes; however, during the red carpet ceremonies, I recalled the picks I made mentally when the nominees were announced and changed my vote on paper before the awards. In those cases, italics denote my "final answer.")

BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave.
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Sandra Bullock, Gravity

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Grandmaster, Philippe Le Sourd
Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
The Grandmaster, William Chang Suk Ping
The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin
The Invisible Woman, Michael O'Connor
12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

BEST FILM EDITING
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
Dallas Buyers Club, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger
12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
The Great Beauty, Italy
The Hunt, Denmark
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
Omar, Palestine

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Stephen Prouty
The Lone Ranger, Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Book Thief, John Williams
Gravity, Steven Price
Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett
Philomena, Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Happy from Despicable Me 2
Let It Go from Frozen
The Moon Song from Her
Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
American Hustle, Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler
Gravity, Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard
The Great Gatsby, Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn
Her, Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena
12 Years a Slave, Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem

BEST SOUND EDITING
All Is Lost, Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns
Captain Phillips, Oliver Tarney
Gravity, Glenn Freemantle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Brent Burge
Lone Survivor, Wylie Stateman

BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
Gravity, Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson
Inside Llewyn Davis, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Lone Survivor, Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds
Iron Man 3, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
The Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
Star Trek Into Darkness, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Midnight, written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips, screenplay by Billy Ray
Philomena, screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
12 Years a Slave, screenplay by John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street, screenplay by Terence Winter

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle, written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, written by Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, written by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
Her, written by Spike Jonze
Nebraska, written by Bob Nelson

Sunday, March 02, 2014

My Oscar picks for 2013



Last year, I saw a record 9 out of all nominated feature-length movies (and none of the shorts). This year has been more intense than usual and I have seen a record low of 3 among all nominees (Gravity, Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, and Star Trek Into Darkness). Clearly, my picks are based on gut feel (and luck) not on actual viewing. My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009, 11 in 2010, 15 in 2011, and 9 (or 8.5, discounting for the tie in Sound Editing) in 2012. (Note: The Oscars tag the awards in the year in which the awards are given, while I date them by the year in which the films were released. Underlining denotes my pick of deserving nominee; boldface will later denote the actual winner.)

BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave.
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Sandra Bullock, Gravity

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Grandmaster, Philippe Le Sourd
Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
The Grandmaster, William Chang Suk Ping
The Great Gatsby, Catherine Martin
The Invisible Woman, Michael O'Connor
12 Years a Slave, Patricia Norris

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

BEST FILM EDITING
American Hustle, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
Dallas Buyers Club, John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
Gravity, Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger
12 Years a Slave, Joe Walker

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
The Great Beauty, Italy
The Hunt, Denmark
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
Omar, Palestine

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Stephen Prouty
The Lone Ranger, Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Book Thief, John Williams
Gravity, Steven Price
Her, William Butler and Owen Pallett
Philomena, Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks, Thomas Newman

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Happy from Despicable Me 2
Let It Go from Frozen
The Moon Song from Her
Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
American Hustle, Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler
Gravity, Production Design: Andy Nicholson; Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard
The Great Gatsby, Production Design: Catherine Martin; Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn
Her, Production Design: K.K. Barrett; Set Decoration: Gene Serdena
12 Years a Slave, Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Alice Baker

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem

BEST SOUND EDITING
All Is Lost, Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns
Captain Phillips, Oliver Tarney
Gravity, Glenn Freemantle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Brent Burge
Lone Survivor, Wylie Stateman

BEST SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
Gravity, Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson
Inside Llewyn Davis, Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Lone Survivor, Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds
Iron Man 3, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
The Lone Ranger, Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
Star Trek Into Darkness, Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before Midnight, written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips, screenplay by Billy Ray
Philomena, screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
12 Years a Slave, screenplay by John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street, screenplay by Terence Winter

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle, written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, written by Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, written by Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
Her, written by Spike Jonze
Nebraska, written by Bob Nelson

My Oscar picks for 2012 (9 of 24)

I have got to get some free time. Here is the followup to my Oscar awards picks for last year -- right before I post my picks for this year.

My success rate for Oscar picks has been 15 out of 24 in 2005, 10 in 2006, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2008, 10 in 2009, 11 in 2010, 15 in 2011, and 9 (or 8.5, discounting for the tie in Sound Editing) in 2012. I saw a record 9 out of all nominated feature-length movies (Beasts of the Southern Wild, Brave, Frankenweenie, Hitchcock, Moonrise Kingdom, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, and Zero Dark Thirty), but it is not even about needing to get out more (or I would have seen those titles that went to DVD before the Oscar telecast). Basically, all but one of my picks for Lincoln (Best Actor) missed, and one time I did not select Lincoln (Production Design), it won. (Underline denotes my pick of deserving nominee. Bold denotes the actual winner.)

Best Picture
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Amour
Django Unchained
Argo

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Alan Arkin, Argo
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master

Best Director
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Actor
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Actress
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Original Screenplay
Zero Dark Thirty
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Flight

Best Adapted Screenplay
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Animated Feature
Frankenweenie
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
Paranorman
Brave

Best Foreign Feature
Amour
A Royal Affair
Kon-Tiki
No
War Witch

Best Visual Effects
Life of Pi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Avengers
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Cinematography
Skyfall
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman

Best Documentary Feature
Searching for Sugar Man
How to Survive a Plague
The Gatekeepers
5 Broken Cameras
The Invisible War

Best Documentary Short
Open Heart
Inocente
Redemption
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine

Best Film Editing
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

Best Music (Original Score)
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall

Best Music (Original Song)
Before My Time from Chasing Ice
Everybody Needs A Best Friend from Ted
Pi's Lullaby from Life of Pi
Skyfall from Skyfall
Suddenly from Les Misérables

Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Best Short Film, Animated
Adam and Dog
Fresh Guacamole
Head over Heels
Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'
Paperman

Best Short Film, Live Action
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)
Henry

Best Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall